Emergency Risks in Victoria Report (2020)
Understanding the types, likelihood, and consequences of emergency risks that Victoria faces is crucial to determining Victoria’s preparedness, including the identification of core capability requirements for the sector and community.
The Emergency Risks in Victoria report (2020) focused on a series of state significant risks and assessed them against the criteria of catastrophic consequences and major consequences. The state significant risks of bushfires, heatwaves and plant pest were the top risks when it came to the highest impact and likelihood for a worst-case scenario. Catastrophic or major consequences from earthquake or pandemic influenza were considered comparatively rare, whilst major consequences from flood and storm were determined to be more likely to occur. The report also considered that a scenario for water supply disruption, where consequences greater than high impact was not deemed plausible.
Catastrophic consequences criteria:
- Deaths and/or critical injuries directly from the emergency are greater than 600 people
- Decline of economic activity loss of asset value greater than $15 billion
- Permanent destruction of an ecosystem or species recognised at the national level
- The affected community ceases to function effectively, breaks down and entirely disperses
- Governing bodies are unable to deliver their core functions.
Major consequences criteria:
- Deaths and/or critical injuries directly from the emergency greater than 60 people
- Decline of economic activity loss of asset value greater than $1.5 billion
- Permanent destruction of an ecosystem or specifics species recognised at the state level
- The community of interest’s social connectedness is significantly broken with significant permanent dispersal
- Governing bodies encounter severe reduction in the delivery of core functions.
Scenario development
Scenarios can be used to determine Victoria’s preparedness and assess the State’s capability and capacity.
This Framework identifies eight significant risks that Victoria faces. As per the Emergency Risks in Victoria report (released in 2020). The scenarios listed in Scenarios that have been developed were developed with consideration to the outcomes of an earlier version of the Emergency Risks in Victoria risk assessment [1]. This information helped subject matter experts to prioritise and decide which scenarios to develop.
The scenarios are intended to be evidence-based, high impact, most plausible scenarios, which allow the extrapolation of aspirational requirements (capability targets) of emergency management preparedness and activities. The scenarios are not an extreme worst case.
| Icon | Description |
|---|---|
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Bushfire/Heatwave |
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Earthquake/Transport Infrastructure |
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Pandemic Influenza |
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Flood/Storm |
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Electricity Supply Disruption |
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Plant Disease |
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Hazmat Emergency |
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Animal Disease |
Understanding our preparedness is based on high impact, plausible emergency scenarios and not the extreme worst case. Circumstances, or a combination of circumstances, may arise for which it is not reasonably possible to be prepared. This understanding was reinforced in the final report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry that stated:
‘A great deal can be done to improve readiness to deal with disasters generally, but it is impossible that any government could be permanently ready to come at once to the assistance of everyone needing help in a disaster of that scale and suddenness, unless it were to maintain a standing force of rescue personnel beyond the present capacity of society to fund’ - Commissioner C.E Holmes, Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, 2012.
As a result, it is not reasonably possible to be at the highest level of preparedness at all times.
‘Finding the right balance in maintaining a level of readiness to respond to bushfire in Victoria is a complex calculation. The required resources in terms of personnel, vehicles, equipment and aircraft need to be scalable according to seasonal requirements and cannot readily be switched on and off if conditions alter rapidly.’ - Inspector General for Emergency Management, Inquiry into the 2019-20 Victorian Fire Season – Phase 1 Community and Sector Preparedness for and Response to the 2019-20 Fire Season, 2020.
Once Victoria considers itself prepared for these scenarios, it may choose to consider low probability scenarios that some may consider to be implausible. Victoria’s recent experience in emergencies shows that even these events could eventuate. Other possibilities include exploring complex, protracted and concurrent emergencies.
Summary of plausible scenarios developed
The following fictional but plausible scenarios have been developed by subject matter experts. They are used to help us understand Victoria’s capability and capacity against the 21 core capabilities.
These scenarios were developed based on the outcomes of the Emergency Risks in Victoria report of 2012/13 and whilst a majority of the risks remain the same in the Emergency Risks in Victoria report of 2020, some risks may differ.
Bushfire/Heatwave
The scenario outlines that the Bureau of Meteorology has projected seven consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 40 degrees in Melbourne. On the last day of the heatwave, the Forest Fire Danger Index peaks at 130, and a south-westerly wind change is forecast in the evening, followed by a bushfire event.
Over 17,500 calls are made to Ambulance Victoria, across the State, there are in excess of 900 confirmed deaths during the heatwave, and the number of daily hospital emergency department presentations increases.
Widespread consequences are experienced across the State from the heatwave affecting public transport, power outages and flow on effects from these. Nine fires of significance occur, three of these are fast moving grass fires through the western region of the State. Two fires of high impact consequences occur, one in a National Park and another in a State Park. Four fires of long duration (28 days) occur in the Alpine and Gippsland regions.
Source: Country Fire Authority, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning and Ambulance Victoria
Earthquake/Transport Infrastructure
The scenario outlines that the Bureau of Meteorology has projected seven consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 40 degrees in Melbourne. On the last day of the heatwave, the Forest Fire Danger Index peaks at 130, and a south-westerly wind change is forecast in the evening, followed by a bushfire event.
Over 17,500 calls are made to Ambulance Victoria, across the State, there are in excess of 900 confirmed deaths during the heatwave, and the number of daily hospital emergency department presentations increases.
Widespread consequences are experienced across the State from the heatwave affecting public transport, power outages and flow on effects from these. Nine fires of significance occur, three of these are fast moving grass fires through the western region of the State. Two fires of high impact consequences occur, one in a National Park and another in a State Park. Four fires of long duration (28 days) occur in the Alpine and Gippsland regions.
Source: Country Fire Authority, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning and Ambulance Victoria
Pandemic Influenza
The pandemic influenza scenario outlines that the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) has met and Australia has declared that we are in the Initial Action stage of a pandemic. Within 3 weeks Victoria has 10,000 cases (2,500 require hospitalisation and of those 1,000 have died).
Cases are also occurring in every other State/Territory as well as spreading across the world. Hospital emergency departments and general practices are overwhelmed with cases and the worried as well. Selected school closures are taking place. Voluntary quarantine and isolation is taking place in the community. Victoria has up to 580,000 cases (presumptive). The duration of the pandemic in Australia could be seven to ten months.
Source: Department of Health (previously Department of Health and Human Services)
Flood/Storm
The scenario describes major impacts from flooding in the La Trobe Valley area, some minor flooding in the North East and Metropolitan areas primarily affecting local roads and farmland. This flooding has occurred after several years of drought Victoria.
Two weeks after the flood occurs a large band of severe thunderstorms move across the State resulting in severe flash flooding across the Geelong area and hail up to 7cm in size across the Central and Eastern parts of Melbourne.
Electricity Supply Disruption
The scenario describes the consequences and impacts of a power outage from loss of power from the Elwood and St Kilda substations in March prior to the Labour Day weekend.
Source: Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning and Emergency Management Victoria
Plant Disease
The scenario details the consequences from an outbreak of Red Imported Fire Ants which is confirmed at a nursery in Victoria. Twenty palms that are infected have been sold to a landscaper in Brunswick from the nursery. Nine further cases are identified in the Shepparton area, a 5km restricted area around the infestation areas is put in place. Overall there are 40,000 properties located within 1km of each incursion, they all require inspection.
Source: Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions
Hazmat Emergency
The scenario models a truck carrying a large load of hazardous chemicals that overturns on a major freeway. A rupture has occurred and a large quantity has escaped. The gas plume is affecting an area of 10km downwind from the accident and spreading 2km wide.
Security-related risks, such as malicious attacks, were not included in this work as they are being assessed under other national arrangements.
Source: Victoria Police and Fire Rescue Victoria
Animal Disease
The scenario outlines an outbreak of foot and mouth disease that has occurred at a saleyard in regional Victoria, on further investigation it is found to have started at a dairy farm. Three properties are quarantined, 3km radius formed around the infected properties and a large number of animals to be destroyed.
Source: Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions
End notes
[1] Future development of new scenarios by the sector and the community should use the most up-to-date risk assessment to inform which scenarios to develop, especially for risks where a scenario is not currently prepared.
The department acknowledges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as the Traditional Custodians of the land and acknowledges and pays respect to their Elders, past and present.